Neither rain nor sleet, or snow, or in this case a trip to the Grand Canyon, will disrupt our market cycle clock calculation and getting it into your mailbox. My associate Rafa is visiting the one of the most majestic holes in the country, but he completed the update to last month’s data before heading into the Arizona abyss this morning. The good news is the inflation component cooled in our cycle clock, the bad news is we’re still in a historically vulnerable spot for equity returns. The Fed is usually hiking or threatening to hike in this zone, but today, inflation expectations are well contained, not surging. This implies the Fed’s credibility remains in tact, and while contracting inflation expectations can suggests a policy mistake that leads to recession, we’re not seeing that reflected in credit spreads. Given the expanding market breadth, we view this as good news, but we remain vigilant to potential policy mistakes and will continue to monitor the marginally tighter financial conditions that have developed in the last month.